Statistics Canada predicts that half of second-generation Canadians would be visibly diverse at Schema : more than ethnic

Statistics Canada predicts that half of second-generation Canadians would be visibly diverse

(See interactive map above at theglobeandmail.com)

Statistics Canada has just released its Projections of the diversity of the Canadian population, for population grown between 2006 to 2031. That's basically two generations from now. They're just estimations about how visibly and culturally diverse the country will be, but made by the smartest people in the country.

Here's the highlights:

By 2031, between 25% and 28% of the Canadian population could be "foreign-born". About 55% of this population would be born in Asia (we kind of already knew this).

The proportion of non-white Canadians will double by 2031 (to between 29% and 32%). Particularly, rapidly among the Canadian-born, many of whom are children and grandchildren of immigrants.

"By 2031, according to the reference scenario, visible minority groups would comprise 63% of the population of Toronto, 59% in Vancouver and 31% in Montréal." Huh? How can they be the "visible minority groups." OK, brainiacs, you need to update your terminology!

Over the next 20 years, the number of Canadians who were born outside of Canada (aka "foreign-born population") could increase four times faster than the rest of the population. Wow! You think there's a lot of Chinese restaurants now?

By 2031, almost one-half (46%) of all Canadians 15 years old and older, would have been born-outside of Canada or would have at least one parent who had immigrated to Canada.

What about those second-gens?

Almost half (47%) of ALL second-generation Canadians (that's people who were born inside Canada, and at least one parent immigrated to Canada) would be visibly diverse. That's nearly DOUBLE the proportion in 2006.

Within the visibly diverse third-generation and above (those who are Canadian-born and whose parents and possibly grandparents were Canadian-born), although they are a small proportion of the population, their size would almost triple, from 1% to 3% of the Canadian population.

What does this all mean?

For all those who are freaking out about Canada dramatically changing ... you can relax. This will happen over two generations. And for those already living in Montreal, Toronto or Vancouver, it will not really be that noticeable on a day-to-day basis, because it's more of what is already happening.

You know, like a friend you only see every five years or so. If you saw them everyday, you wouldn't even notice the changes. It's not like they're invading the country in Hummers and setting up camps.

Generally speaking, a new immigrant family will co-op Canadian sensibilities and values within a generation. So two generations means most of these "foreign-born" Canadians will be pretty mainstream by 2031. If not them, they're kids and grandchildren will be pretty mainstream.

I know the third-gen numbers don't seem like a big deal, right? But consider that Korea is going from 1% immigration to 2% and is in a panic, maybe we're just taking the 300% growth for granted.

What this means is that when you stupidly ask someone, "Where are you really from? Like, where are your grandparents from?" you're three times more likely to be spat at.

What's really important to note is the growth of the visibly diverse second-gen (and presumably 1.5-generation Canadians). What's not said in the report is that second-gen Canadians are "mainstream Canadians."

They're as economically mobile, and generally more culturally mobile than the gen-pop and new immigrants. And certainly more economically and socially mobile than new immigrants.

According to Stats Canada this population is the most educated and very well integrated into Canadian society. As the Globe and Mail said back in 2003, they are the drivers of "The New Canada."

OK, yes, we knew this already too (after all, they're what has inspired the idea of SCHEMA MAGAZINE and this concept of "cultural navigators"), but it's always good to have the brainiacs at Stats Canada affirm it.

Read the whole report at statcan.gc.ca | Check out the cool map on theglobeandmail.com | Great bar graph illustrating growth of "visible minority" population on CBC.ca

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Comments

GREAT post Alden! haha yes, Stats Canada is a bit behind the game, but I LOVE how you can throw this report into the face of every "go home" naysayer who dares to imply that visibly diverse people aren't a part of this country.

I saw this story on CBC and CTV and I wonder how it will affect future Canadian politics and society. IMHO, our culture will completely change and perhaps immigration to Canada will spike again to join families.

Visible minority - I really hate this term - it only intensifies the growing insecurity that's been eating at me for years. I hate having to think of myself in this way. Why can't I just be me?

Looking at the comments pages of various papers around the country, I can see that a lot of people are very uncomfortable with the 'colouring' of Canada. Maybe we should be more frank, but unfortunately outside of the protective anonymity online, you rarely hear what people are really thinking.

But why is it such a big deal now? Why is this front-page news? It's been my reality my whole life (mid-30s) but the multicultural ideal I grew up with seems to be receding, replaced by I don't know what.

The gatekeepers at the Globe and other media might think this something worth commenting on, but then again, they are predominantly white and grew up in a relatively homogenous environment.

I left Canada a few years ago, and now live in a part of the world where I am very much a foreigner. Abroad I consider myself a Canadian. At home in Calgary visiting family, I am reminded once again (however subtly), that I am different, that we are different. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt, but then stuff like this happens and I don't know what to think:

1. Waiting in line to see technical service for my computer, the one clerk who wasn't busy ignores me and proceeds to deal with a couple behind me, even though I've been waiting more than a few minutes and they just walked into the store.

2. My friend (of Indo-Guyanese origin) and I walk into a restaurant/lounge bar - there are perhaps 8 people in the entire room, and seats for maybe 30-50 people. We are informed that we must leave as the restaurant has been reserved for a private party.

3. My cousin and I walk into a half-empty sports bar and occupy a table within plain sight of the blonde waitress - who proceeds to ignore us for 10 minutes until we finally manage to grab the attention of another older waitress, who in fact does apologize for the wait.

4. After a round of billiards with several young Calgarians, all white and who appear to have never encountered our 'kind' before, my brother, cousin and I are relieved to hear that "you guys aren't so bad."

Maybe I'm being neurotic. But then again reports like this and the reactions to it are not that encouraging.